Irish Polling Indicator

The Irish Polling Indicator, a project launched in 2014 and maintained by Stefan Müller, combines all Irish opinion polls for the Dáil Éireann into ranges of likely support. The Polling Indicator focuses on contextualising new polls, not on competing with pollsters or making election predictions.

The Guardian, Reuters, the Financial Times, The Irish Times, RTÉ News, the Irish Independent, The Sunday Times, and the Business Post all reported estimates from the Irish Polling Indicator.

Scroll down for the latest estimates, interactive graphs, a description of the method, access to the raw data, and blog posts. You can follow the Irish Polling Indicator on BlueSky.

Latest Estimates

Note: The Irish Polling Indicator only includes parties consistently tracked by all pollsters. A note on the Bayesian credible intervals: If all of the assumptions of our model hold, then there is a 95% probability that a party’s support is within the range of the 95% uncertainty margins.

Display most recent estimates as table
Party Estimate 95% Uncertainty Margins
Sinn Féin 24% 22.5%–25.5%
Fine Gael 19.5% 18%–20.5%
Fianna Fáil 19% 18%–20%
Independents/Others 13.5% 12%–15%
Social Democrats 7.5% 6.5%–8.5%
Labour 4.5% 4%–5.5%
Aontú 4% 3%–5%
Independent Ireland 3.5% 3%–4.5%
Solidarity-PBP 2.5% 2%–3%
Green Party 2.5% 2%–2.5%
Latest update: 26 Oct 2025

Graphs and Tables