Thursday, 4 December 2014

Independents back on top of the polls


Independents and others are back on top of the Irish Polling Indicator, which combines all Irish opinion polls to one estimate of current party strength. They are now on 28%, with an uncertainty margin of +/- 2.5%. Fine Gael has been loosing support since early September and is now on 21%, with Sinn Féin on 22% and Fianna Faíl on 20%. The differences between these parties are so small that we cannot definitely say which one is currently the largest of the three.

Monday, 22 September 2014

Government parties gain, independents fall in Irish Polling Indicator

Irish Polling Indicator, update 21 September 2014
Lines display estimates per party, shaded areas indicate 95% uncertainty margins


Fine Gael and Labour show increased popularity in opinion polls in the last months, the Irish Polling Indicator shows. Fine Gael is now on 26% with Labour at 8%, which represents a 3 percentage point increase for both parties compared to early June. Independents, meanwhile, have seen their support drop from 27% early June to 23% now. Sinn Féin support is now estimated at 22% and Fianna Faíl at 19%; neither party shows a significant change in support over the summer.

Sunday, 17 August 2014

Irish Polling Indicator: Labour support doubles in two months

Support for the Labour party has increased from 5% early June to 10% early August, the Irish Polling Indicator finds. The IPI pools information from all national Irish party opinion polls to arrive at what is arguably the best estimate of the parties' current standings. Fine Gael comes out on top with 24%, but because of the uncertainty margin all opinion polls have, Independents/Others on 23% or Sinn Féin on 21.5% might also be in the lead. Fianna Fáil lags somewhat behind on 19%.

Irish Polling Indicator, update 16 August 2014
Lines display estimates per party, shaded areas indicate 95% uncertainty margins

Wednesday, 25 June 2014

Independents take top spot in Irish Polling Indicator

Irish Polling Indicator, update 12 June 2014
Lines display estimates per party, shaded areas indicate 95% uncertainty margin

Independents and smaller parties have seen their electoral support increased over the last two months. They now top the Irish Polling Indicator, which combines all national election polls in to one estimate of party support. Independents now score between 25.7% and 31%, followed by Sinn Féin at 21.5-25.7% and Fine Gael at 20.1%-24.2%. The largest government party has been on a downward slope in the polls since mid-February, while Sinn Féin have seen an increase in public support since the beginning of this year. These trends seem to continue after the May local and European elections.

Thursday, 15 May 2014

Pooling Irish Opinion Polls: Introducing the Irish Polling Indicator

Irish Polling Indicator for 1 May 2014 
Note: the last Red C poll does not provide separate estimates for the Green Party and Others, therefore the OTH and GP line end in April.

Opinion polls are a source of information for voters, parties and the media alike. Especially polls into the popularity of parties are usually quite popular. Polls can be a powerful instrument: if done well, a sample of just 1000 voters can give great insights into the (political) views of the entire Irish electorate. But polls are often misunderstood and incorrectly reported. A new tool brings together all Irish opinion polls and aggregates them into one estimate of the support for Irish parties.