Monday, 27 January 2020

Irish Polling Indicator, update 27 January 2020

This update adds two polls released on Sunday, 26 January 2020. A Red C poll was published in the Sunday Business Post; the Irish Mail on Sunday reported on a poll conducted by Ireland Thinks. The Irish Polling Indicator mirrors the reports’ main conclusion: support for Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin is rising. Overall, we see that Fianna Fáil (estimated support between 25 and 28.5 per cent) is narrowly ahead of Fine Gael (23.5 to 26.5 per cent), although the difference between the two parties is still within the uncertainty margin. Sinn Féin is doing well in the polls with the estimated support ranging between 18 and 22 per cent. The party has gained about 5 percentage points since mid October. We will update the Polling Indicator once new polls become available.

Tuesday, 21 January 2020

Irish Polling Indicator, update 21 January 2020

This update adds the poll published by Ipsos MRBI in the Irish Times on 20 January. This poll put Fianna Fáil in pole position (25 per cent), but the difference to Fine Gael (on 23 per cent) is much smaller than in the Behaviour & Attitudes poll published at the weekend, which ranked Fianna Fáil at 32 and Fine Gael at 20 per cent. However, the Ipsos MRBI and the B&A polls suggest a strong increase in support for Sinn Féin. The updated Irish Polling Indicator ranks Fianna Fáil at 24–28.5, Fine Gael at 24.5–27.5 and Sinn Féin at 15.5–20 per cent. We will update the aggregated estimates of the Irish Polling Indicator once new polls become available.

Sunday, 19 January 2020

Irish Polling Indicator, update 19 January 2020

This is a long overdue update of the Irish Polling Indicator, which I had not updated since the end of 2017. This new update includes all polls published since then and also adds the polls of Ireland Thinks. The other pollsters included in the model are Behaviour & Attitudes, Ipsos MRBI, Millward Brown and Red C Research. Because not all pollsters publish figures on all minor parties, I now report one category of Others/Independents (including Independent Alliance). Votes for Independent candidates form the bulk of this category.

Overall, we see that Fine Gael (estimated support between 28 and 31 per cent) is very narrowly ahead of Fianna Faíl (between 24 and 28 per cent). But again, this was the situation around mid-December 2019, so this might very well have changed or still change during the election campaign for the 2020 general election. Sinn Féin is on 15 to 18.5 per cent, but here we see particularly large differences between pollsters (Red C: 11%, B&A: 20%). A category of Independents (including IA) and others is on between 10.5 per cent and 14 percent.

The Green Party, which saw a strong increase in support around the European Parliament elections in May last year, is now estimated on 5.5 to 8 percent. The Labour party has been very stable in polls over the last few years, and currently still showing 4.5 to 6 per cent. Solidarity-PBP and Social Democrats are on a couple of percentage points each.

Full details and graphs >>
The method used for combining the polls is explained here >>