Data & Graphs

Most recent data in the Irish Polling Indicator. Percentages per party.

This tab displays the development of party support in the Polling Indicator over time since the 2020 elections. The shaded areas indicate the 95% uncertainty margin.
Show parties:

The line displays the Polling Indicator estimate with the 95% uncertainty margin shaded. Dots indicate the polls. Mouseover to see exact values. The polls are plotted in the (middle of the) fieldwork period, not the publication date.
Select party:
Companies: ⚫︎ B&A = Behaviour & Attitudes, ⚫︎ Ipsos = Ipsos MRBI, ⚫︎ IT = Ireland Thinks, ⚫︎ Red C = Red C Research

This tab displays gains or losses per party. This concerns the difference with the most recent poll. A positive score indicates that a party was polling higher at that moment in time than now; a negative score indicates that it was polling worse at that particular time. The shaded area indicates the 95% uncertainty margin; if this margin does not include zero, there is a statistically significant difference between the party score now and in the past.
Show parties:

This tab displays the differences between pairs of parties. Select party 1 and 2 to display the difference in support for them. A positive number means that party 1 was bigger than party two, a negative number means that party 1 is smaller than party 2. The shaded area indicates the 95% uncertainty margin. If it does not cross the line at zero, the difference between two parties is statistically significant at that date. If the shaded area does cross the zero line then we cannot conclude which party is bigger based on the available data.
Party 1:
Party 2:

This tab displays the 'house effects' of the polling companies for each party. A positive house effect means that a pollster structurally estimates a certain party higher than the average pollster. The dot indicates the best estimate for the house effect, the lines display the 95% uncertainty margin.
The most recent estimate can be downloaded here (Excel format). Longitudinal data for the current parliamentary term is available here (Excel format).

Point estimates and 95% Bayesian credible intervals for all parties on each day and the raw polling data from 1982–2020 are available from two Dataverse repositories:
Please cite the appropriate reference(s), when you use Irish Polling Indicator estimates.